Thursday, August 20, 2009

Health Care Proposal Confusion

I have to admit that this whole health care debate confuses me. I understand some of the main problems with the current system; things like non-portability of insurance across jobs and across states, the high incidence of medical malpractice lawsuits, the large numbers of people uninsured, and the rapidly rising costs. Clearly the current system has major problems and may be unsustainable in the long term. But what I can’t figure out by reading the popular press, listening to the pundits, or reading blogs is what is the central core of the health care reform proposal and how precisely does it solve these particular problems?

There are several reasons I think an answer to these basic questions are hard to come by. First, there isn’t one reform proposal out there. Different legislators have different plans and different ideas they hope to integrate into whatever becomes the final bill. As a result discussion of the issue gets distracted away from the core elements of the plan to its particular features … like the brouhaha about death panels for example. Or, the discussion becomes overly abstract, like, do we want socialism or not?

Another problem arises because of the way democratic reform works in our system. Any legislator who wishes to revamp the health care system may begin with a core plan and a simple structure to solve some of the major problems. However, as the legislation works its way through committees and is discussed among stakeholders (and bear in mind with health care reform, everyone is a stakeholder) amendments are made to the core legislation. First the powerful groups will weigh in. The insurance companies will suggests adjustments to the legislation to assuage their concerns and the changes will be added to appease that group. The American Medical Assn. representing physician interests will weigh in and propose changes and adjustments. The pharmaceutical companies will propose some changes and they will be included. Etcetera, etcetera, etcetera.

By the time a final bill is passed in committee and moved into the House or Senate, any simple plan that was originally proposed has now become a monster bill with so many pages and so many qualifications and special regulations that nobody - nobody at all - can understand the full ramifications.

This is one reason supporters begin speaking in platitudes. For example, President Obama said this week "What is truly scary—what is truly risky—is if we do nothing," and “We can't keep the system the way it is right now," Since no one knows all of the specifics of the bill, not even the President, it is only really possible to talk about it in very general, one might say political, terms.

This is also why opponents search out and focus attention on the specific and suspicious minor clauses and raise these to the head of the debate. (like death panels) In any bill of monster proportions there will be plenty to object to and it is never hard to shine the spotlight on these and thereby cast doubt upon the entire proposal.

It is true that this is the way compromise works in a democracy. All interested parties have a chance to voice their concerns. Legislators weigh the importance of each argument, and amend the legislation whenever doing so pleases an important group. In the end every legislator cares primarily about making enough people happy so that they themselves can secure reelection in the future. That’s surely why the most influential groups are the one’s with the most money, who can, at least indirectly, influence the greatest future number of votes.

However, although the democratic system facilitates compromise of this sort, that doesn’t mean it generates an efficient or even a reasonable outcome. The main thing that concerns me is that complexity breeds inefficiency. The greater the number of special conditions and clauses here are in the bill, the harder it will be for system participants to figure it all out. That means health insurance companies, hospitals, pharmaceutical companies and others will all need to hire consultants and specialists to maneuver most effectively through the tangle of regulations. For well-educated professionals that will mean more jobs and higher salaries. But the more of these administrative jobs are needed to wade through the system, the more time and effort will be spent on that and the less time and effort will be spent delivering high quality healthcare. Or, if the amount of healthcare provided is maintainable, then the overall price tag will rise to pay for all of the extra administration.

So here’s what I’d like to see before supporting any kind of health policy reform. First I’d like to see a short, sweet and simple proposal; not one that’s thousands of pages long. Of course this is well nigh impossible since it would mean all the special interests would have to take out all their favorite clauses and the chances they would do that are virtually zero.

OK then, if this can’t be done then at least I’d like to see a proposal that is simple enough so that it can be explained to the average American. Someone, President Obama preferably, needs to be able to point to the different components of the bill and explain how and why it’s an effective means to solve the health care problems. How will it reduce costs … don’t just proclaim that it will? How will it solve the portability issue? How will it cover all Americans? Until at least this happens I think it’s far better if nothing is done at all.

11 comments:

Anonymous said...

I will give another source of confusion for me. I could see this as a "socialist" problem if the government was trying to wrestle pricing power from frontline healthcare providers, but that was done a long time ago by the health insurance companies and I am baffled, for a number of reasons, how anybody can get excited about saving health insurance companies from the wrath of "Commie" Obamacare.
Which brings me back to another example of the hypocrisy of intra-national protectionism.
The health insurance industry, unless I got it wrong, is nothing more then a demand side "economy of scales" machine; health insurance companies prior to the advent of popular use of the internet were able to collect a
large group of customers desiring healthcare and use this group to negotiate reduced aggregate pricing versus healthcare providers. The concept is great and no different than Union collective bargaining, but, like any other pre-internet industry whose business model is being questioned, the health insurance industry's method of collecting groups of people and creating demand side economy of scales is grossly overwhelmed by the endless array of methods the internet can provide nationally and internationally, whether it be voluminous or category;i.e., by age, by health, by procedures etc.,etc. Ad Infinitum, but, unlike other industries(publishing), I don't see this happening at all.
And my question to you is Why?

Anonymous said...

Have you read Matt Taibbi's article on healthcare in the recent ROLLING STONE?
If you have, I would be very interested to hear your take on it.

Anonymous said...

I would like to ask you an international trade question I believe is very important, but doesn't seem to be asked:
The Leontief Parodox rendered the H-O theorem, for all intents and purposes, useless until capital intensity was qualified to mean human capital(the design and engineer of the widget machine was the cause of comparative advantage, not the widget machine per se.) The medical science industry(healthcare), by its very nature, should be defined as a highly human capital intensive business, in and of itself. The United States has the most advanced medical(healthcare) industry in the world and thus should be a profound area of our comparative advantage.
My question is, if the above is true, why aren't we exporting medical(healthcare) services in a big way?

Steve Suranovic said...

Good question! Without looking carefully at trade statistics I would sugget the following. First, we do export health services every time foreigners come to our medical centers to get treatment in a more timely fashion. I wouldn't expect that represents a significant amount of "exports"but it does happen. Second, I believe we do export significantly in pharmaceuticals products which is a part of the health care industry. Finally, and probably most importantly, any comparative advantage can be reversed with government provided healthcare. In many countries government forces citizens to pay taxes to fund healthcare, which is then "freely" provided to citizens. Anyone who considers purchasing US health services would have to pay twice for the services since they are not allowed a refund of their taxes. The only time that will happen is if US healthcare could provide another desired attribute (such as timely service). Of course this option is only open to foreigners who can afford to pay twice.

Anonymous said...

Your answer misses the mark.
The fact is our economy is so tarnished by self-interest that we don't even know, or we don't want to know where our comparative advantage lies.
After all, wouldn't foreign nations want to import our healthcare(by either coming to our medical centers or through our foreign investment in them) so they can devote their resources to the industries of their own comparative advantage?
I am tempted to conclude by editorializing, but, the fact is, the positive missed economic implications of the above are a lot more profound.

Jon said...

hi, mr. suranovic. I would just like to seek your help on what reference you can suggest for me that can make me easier understand financial markets -- exchange rates regime. I have having difficulty in my studies right now and I just hope you can help me ... thanks so much and more power to you

Jon

Anonymous said...

Steve, I'm curious to hear your response to a very interesting question. If in our economy industries are "gamed", and thus not operated at maximum efficiency, then how can we possibly know where our comparative advantages actually lie?
The above statement(see comment 5) is quite a good illustration of the question: After all, wouldn't foreign nations want to import our healthcare(by either coming to our medical centers or through our foreign investment in them) so they can devote their resources to the industries of their own comparative advantage?

Steve Suranovic said...

A couple of comments in response:

First, comparative advantage for a country is dependent upon the constraints and regulations implemented by government. Government policies are often referred to as distortions by economists. That's because they change the decisions of market participants away from what they would be in a completely free market. Now sometimes that very distortion improves overall efficiency as when it corrects for a negative externality, for example.

When distortions do not effectively correct for other market imperfections, they change the allocation of resources in inefficient ways. In other words we produce too much of some things and too less of other things, again relative to the undistorted or perfectly corrected economy.

As for the medical industry, do we have a comparative advantage relative to other countries? Well, there's no way to know unless the market became more unregulated and we watched to see what happens. That seems unlikely to occur. Instead we can only see what happens under the current sets of regulations and constraints, that is, in distorted conditions.

One other reason we may not export more medical services though is because health care's cost of international provision may be high enough to make it much like a non-tradable service. The classic example is something like haircuts. We don't go abroad for a cheaper haircut because it costs too much to do so. Similarly, people would rarely pay the travel expense for an average doctor's visit in another country. However, they may do so if it is for an expensive procedure, like a heart bypass, but then only very wealthy foreigners can afford to take advantage of that, and many of them do so.

I'm not sure I'm getting to the heart of the questions. Feel free to elaborate if I'm still missing the mark.

Anonymous said...

A totally unencumbered free market results in monopolies, which is probably the only environment that feel good(maximum welfare, full employment) comparative advantage can take place-each nation produces their respective monopolized products and freely trade with each other.
In the real world, nations produce in a constrained, regulated environment distorting markets to the point where it is difficult, if not impossible, to determine where comparative advantage takes place rendering the above feel good scenario, for all intents and purposes, null and void.
So my question is, in the real world environment, who, based on the above premises, is really deriving the benefits of "Free" trade and "making the money"?

Anonymous said...

Why are Health Insurance companies exempt from anti-trust laws and if the above laws were enforced wouldn't it go along way in ameliorating the rampant healthcare
costs that the current market environment allows?

Anonymous said...

First I would like to say this was an excellent and simple explanation of why there is so much confusion and resistance to the proposed changes to health care!!

One thing that I see missing from the health care debate or discussions in general is that though CA has come up once or twice the issues of importing health care like so many other products and services seems to be missing.

I am not speaking of anything near the labor cost imbalance seen in manufacturing between the US and China or India etc (even though the pharmaceutical companies in the US do compete on that level all the time).

Just the fact that costs or incomes of US health care professionals especially specialists etc (lets not forget the insurance companies either) seem to have better maintained or even increased over those in the two other countries while those needing to cover those costs (insurance or not it is still the consumer) have seen wages that have not been able to keep at that same pace or level.

Can this squeezing of income of the many millions of US workers who are in industries who have had to control wages more closely in order to better compete in a global market combined with an ever growing government needing to squeeze even more from these same workers who need to have the dollars available to support these doctors and other health care workers be an unspoken part of the underlying cause of the so called crisis?

More simply can the problem be little more than not being able to import cheap inferior doctors from third world nations (I know this happens already, but the sarcasm is in regulating their earnings to that of their previous country to keep the costs or ratio on par with the other products imported from there etc) to be able to supply the same low cost health care to match all the other low cost products Americans are now so reliant on for survival?

Yes there is a good dose of sarcasm in the above, but just where do the higher income health care professionals expect the dollars to come from when so many other workers in other industries have seen their incomes erode away from inflation, taxes and the pressures on US companies to compete?